Cubs Visit Pirates in Double-Tough NL Central

Can Pirates Stay in the NL Central Race?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the playoffs hunt again. The Chicago Cubs (69-50, +0.99 betting units) are once again on top of the National League Central standings. This year there are three other winning teams in the division. their path to the playoffs is anything but secure.

The Cubs will visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (61-60, +0.73 units) Thursday night in the opener of an important four-game set at PNC Park.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, NBCS Chicago, AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (12-5, 3.89 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Ivan Nova (7-6, 4.42).

ODDS: Cubs are -125-moneyline favorites. The total is 8.5Under -115.

The Pirates are 51-2 when leading after eight innings, while the Cubs are 58-2 when taking a lead to the ninth.

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Jon Lester will start the game for Chicago. Lester did make the All-Star Game this year for the fifth time. His performance level is arguably the worst it’s been since he broke into the majors in 2007. Lester has given up a career-high 1.47 home runs per nine innings.

The Cubs are still 17-7 this year in his 24 starts for 8.29 units in profit. That’s after providing Lester 5.96 runs of support per game. That’s well above Chicago’s season average of 4.92 runs, driving the Over to a 14-9-2 record.

Ivan Nova is due up for the Pirates. Nova has Pittsburgh up 4.69 units this year on a team record of 13-9 (The Over is 12-9-1). The Pirates have won five of Nova's last six starts. The 31-year-old is 3-0 with a 4.22 ERA over that stretch.

Nova won at San Francisco last time out. He limited the Giants to two runs and three hits over six frames. Nova is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in six starts against the Cubs and has allowed four runs in 12 2/3 innings across two meetings in 2018.

PREDICTION: Cubs 6, Pirates 4

Recent Form

Team	record	money	vs LHP	vs RHP	Fave	Dog	O/U	Diff
Chi Cubs	69-50	$99.00	18-9	51-41	62-37	7-13	53-62-4	0.76
Pittsburgh	61-60	$73.00	15-20	46-40	36-30	25-30	58-55-8	0.0099999999999998

Pitchers Last 3 Starts

J Lester (12-5) ERA: 3.89

event date	Opponent	Result	score	OU Result	ip	money
Aug 11, 2018	WSH	L	4-9	O	3.2	-$100.00
Aug 5, 2018	SD	L	6-10	O	5	-$100.00
Jul 31, 2018	PIT	L	4-5	O	5	-$100.00

I Nova (7-6) ERA: 4.41

event date	Opponent	Result	score	OU Result	ip	money
Aug 9, 2018	SF	W	10-5	O	6	$136.00
Aug 4, 2018	STL	L	4-8	O	4	-$100.00
Jul 27, 2018	NYM	W	5-4	P	5	$75.00

Bullpen

Chi Cubs's relievers have pitched 9 innings in the last 3 games.
Pittsburgh's relievers have pitched 7 innings in the last 3 games.

Pitcher Recent Starts Vs Opponent

Chicago Cubs - J Lester

Date	score	Winner	ip	hits	Runs	Earned Runs	walks	strikeouts	Decision
Jul 31, 2018	5-4	PIT	5	7	4	4	3	3	Loss
Jun 9, 2018	2-0	CHC	7	1	0	0	2	5	Win
May 29, 2018	8-6	CHC	6	8	4	4	0	6	Win
Apr 11, 2018	13-5	CHC	5	7	4	4	3	3	No Decision
Sep 7, 2017	8-2	CHC	6	5	1	1	4	5	Win

Pittsburgh Pirates - I Nova

Date	score	Winner	ip	hits	Runs	Earned Runs	walks	strikeouts	Decision
Jun 10, 2018	7-1	PIT	5.2	4	1	1	2	8	Win
Apr 10, 2018	8-5	PIT	7	7	3	3	0	6	Win
Aug 30, 2017	17-3	CHC	3	5	5	4	1	5	Loss
Jul 8, 2017	4-2	PIT	6.2	3	2	2	1	6	Win
Jun 17, 2017	4-3	PIT	7	6	3	3	2	6	Win

Supergrid

Title	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Away Team Overall Scoring vs Home Team Overall Defense	4.91	4	4.54	18
Away Team Away Scoring vs Home Team Home Defense	4.86	6	4.29	16
Home Team Overall Scoring vs Away Team Overall Defense	4.55	14	4.15	11
Home Team Home Scoring vs Away Team Road Defense	4.37	17	3.66	4

Head To Head Detail

Date	Away	away score	Home	home score	line	O/U	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Away Hits	Home Hits	Away Walks	Home Walks	Away Strikeouts	Home Strikeouts
Aug 1, 2018	CHC	9	PIT	2	117	8	O	Cole Hamels (L)	Nick Kingham (R)	15	7	7	4	5	11
Jul 31, 2018	CHC	4	PIT	5	-116	7.5	O	Jon Lester (L)	Jameson Taillon (R)	9	8	4	3	4	5
Jun 10, 2018	PIT	7	CHC	1	-186	9	U	Ivan Nova (R)	Kyle Hendricks (R)	9	4	6	2	8	10
Jun 9, 2018	PIT	0	CHC	2	-167	8	U	Nick Kingham (R)	Jon Lester (L)	1	6	2	4	8	6
Jun 8, 2018	PIT	1	CHC	3	-157	8	U	Chad Kuhl (R)	Mike Montgomery (L)	9	9	2	2	4	11
May 30, 2018	CHC	1	PIT	2	124	8	U	Kyle Hendricks (R)	Joe Musgrove (R)	9	9	4	3	7	3
May 29, 2018	CHC	8	PIT	6	120	8.5	O	Jon Lester (L)	Nick Kingham (R)	14	13	4	0	7	8
May 28, 2018	CHC	7	PIT	0	-107	9	U	Mike Montgomery (L)	Chad Kuhl (R)	12	2	5	0	7	7
Apr 12, 2018	PIT	6	CHC	1	-180	8.5	U	Trevor Williams (R)	Kyle Hendricks (R)	9	7	7	1	10	6
Apr 11, 2018	PIT	5	CHC	13	-158	8.5	O	Steven Brault (L)	Jon Lester (L)	8	16	3	2	6	5

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games
Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chi Cubs is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi Cubs's last 8 games on the road
Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Chi Cubs is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Chi Cubs is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chi Cubs's last 25 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitt is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Pitt is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Pittsburgh's last 25 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

Team Vs Division Or Conference

Chicago Cubs

	record	Home	Away	Fave	Dog	O/U	vs LHP	vs RHP
Overall	69-50	38-23	31-27	62-36	10-14	53-62-4	18-9	51-41
Last 10	6-4	4-3	2-1	5-4	1-0	3-7	0-1	6-3
vs Div	27-25	14-8	13-17	27-18	1-7	23-26-3	3-0	24-25
vs AL	10-5	7-3	3-2	9-3	1-2	7-8	2-0	8-5
vs NL	59-45	31-20	28-25	53-33	9-12	46-54-4	16-9	43-36

Pittsburgh Pirates

	record	Home	Away	Fave	Dog	O/U	vs LHP	vs RHP
Overall	61-60	33-29	28-31	36-26	28-33	58-55-8	15-20	46-40
Last 10	4-6	0-1	4-5	1-2	3-4	4-6	2-2	2-4
vs Div	28-19	18-10	10-9	13-8	16-10	20-24-3	3-7	25-12
vs AL	12-5	5-2	7-3	10-3	3-2	10-7	3-0	9-5
vs NL	49-55	28-27	21-28	26-23	25-31	48-48-8	12-20	37-35

Team Last 5 Games

Chicago Cubs

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	Total	starter	ip	opposing starter	Location
Ag 15, 2018	MIL	8-4	W	-144	9	K Hendricks	6	Junior Guerra	H
Ag 14, 2018	MIL	0-7	L	-140	9.5	J Quintana	5	J Chacin	H
Aug 12, 2018	WSH	4-3	W	127	7.5	C Hamels	7	M Scherzer	H
Ag 11, 2018	WSH	4-9	L	-135	9	J Lester	3.2	T Roark	H
Aug 10, 2018	WSH	3-2	W	-139	8.5	K Hendricks	6	J Hellickson	H

Pittsburgh Pirates

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	Total	starter	ip	opposing starter	Location
Aug 15, 2018	MIN	4-6	L	106	8	C Archer	5	Jose Berrios	A
Aug 14, 2018	MIN	2-5	L	-125	9	Jameson Taillon	6	J Odorizzi	A
Aug 12, 2018	SF	3-4	L	-106	7.5	Joe Musgrove	6	Dereck Rodriguez	A
Aug 11, 2018	SF	4-0	W	119	8.5	Trevor Williams	7	Ty Blach	A
Aug 10, 2018	SF	10-13	L	108	8	Clay Holmes	2.2	D Holland	A

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