By Joe Gavazzi Winning Sports Advice
Our late-phone service enters the Super Bowl on a run of 13-5 ATS and a perfect 7-0 ATS on most recent selections rated 3% or higher. That includes a pair of 5% winners in the last 2 weeks of play. For the first time ever the Super Bowl will feature the 2 best scoring defenses in the league. That is no surprise because of the masterful minds that are responsible for these units. DC Capers has run the Green Bay defense for the last 2 years, switching them to the 3-4 alignment. His ties to the Steelers date to the early 90?s when, as head man of the Steelers defense, he worked in conjunction with current Pittsburgh DC Lebeau to develop this defensive front and its attendant blitz packages. Lebeau has gone on to be inducted into the Hall of Fame and create his own legend as head man in charge of the Steelers defense. The offenses are lead by a pair of signal callers that most would consider to be among the Top 5 in the league. Both Roethlisberger and Rodgers have had outstanding seasons in leading their teams to the Super Bowl. When Green Bay has the ball: The emergence of RB Starks has led to a recent improvement in the Green Bay running game, which averaged only 100 RYPG on 3.8 YPR. Nonetheless, cannot figure them to have success against the Top ranked Pittsburgh rush defense that allows just 63 RYPG on 3.0 YPR. That leaves Green Bay success on the arm of QB Rodgers. If the Steelers have a weak link it?s their pass secondary, which although it allows 214 PYPG, gives up only 5.8 DYPA. The question for Green Bay is whether they will be able to protect Rodgers from the fierce Steelers? blitz, which is expected to come early and often to set the tone and mindset of QB Rodgers for the game. When Pittsburgh has the ball: Steelers have a solid, if not spectacular, running game keyed by RB Mendenhall who has come into his own this season. They should have success overland vs. a Green Bay rush defense that allowed 4.6 YPR in the regular season. Major question mark in this regard is the ability of the OL to open holes in the face of season-ending injuries to both starting tackles and perhaps (C) Pouncey, who at this writing has not been ruled out for the game with a high ankle sprain. His replacement, Legursky, was only adequate in replacing Pouncey for the majority of the previous game. Should the Pittsburgh ground game be effective, it will open the airways in a huge way for QB Roethlisberger and a deep core of receivers, featuring veterans in Ward and Randle El plus the lightning quick young tri of Wallace, Brown, and Sanders. Key to this passing game, as always, will be TE Miller. Special Teams: For Green Bay, kickers Masthay and (PK) Crosby were serviceable. The return teams for Green Bay each finished in the middle of the league. Last year the Steelers were vulnerable to the kick return. HC Tomlin made improvement of those units a priority in the off-season. Though the Steelers lost (P) Sepulveda to a knee injury, his replacement Kapinos has done an adequate job. (PK) Suisham has been a solid replacement in going 16/18 after the Steelers released veteran Reed. In an area of the game which inevitably goes a long way in determining a final score, there?s little edge to be gleaned from the results of the current season. Conclusion: THE SIDE Shopping for best line value is always important. Yet you must understand the realities of the NFL. In the regular season, there were 151 games in which the line was 6 or less. The straight-up winner covered 136 of those (90%). In 10 playoff games, this postseason, the SU winner beat the spread every time. Only 6 times in 43 Super Bowls has the point spread mattered. Keep that in mind when making your final decision. My preference at this time is for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game. Should their running game succeed as expected, it will be a huge advantage. Teams who outrush their opponent by 30+ yards are a 76% play on over 1,500 selections since 2000. This year in the postseason, that edge has led to a 9-0 ATS record. Further reason for supporting the Steelers would be their playoff experience. Huge edge in that regard to Pittsburgh over a Green Bay team who is just beginning to emerge. Teams with clear experience edges in the Super Bowls are 11-6 ATS. There will be inevitable times in this game when the going will get tough. The Steelers are better equipped to handle those challenges. The final element to favor the Steelers is their superior passion and intensity on defense, which is more likely to lead to a big play game-changer. That accumulation of edges in key areas makes the Steelers the percentage side in this game. One further intangible to consider is that one of the sharpest sports books on the planet, Pinnacle, opened this game at a Pickem. The Over Under: With 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls going Under the total, a knee jerk reaction might be to go Under an inflated line of 44 ½ with a pair of defenses that allow a combined 31 points. Yet there?s more to scoring defense, particularly in championship games. The combination for the potential of Special Teams scores and fourth-quarter fireworks, should one team be trailing significantly, all make the Under a dangerous proposition. FOR MORE INFO AND WINNERS GO TO www.winningsportsadvice.com Or DOWNLOAD OUR APP Winning Sports Advice FOR FREE at http://bit.ly/9tyF9DSaturday, February 5, 2011
Friday, February 4, 2011
NBA Preview: Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
NBA Preview: Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"
NBA Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics
NBA Preview: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"
NCAA Basketball Preview: Iona Gaels vs. Fairfield Stags
NCAA Basketball Preview: Iona Gaels vs. Fairfield Stags: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"
Thursday, February 3, 2011
NBA Preview: Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
NBA Preview: Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"
NBA Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
NBA Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers: "- Sent using Google Toolbar"
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