By Charles Jay
When you leave all the stuff about deflating footballs and using
so-called “illegal” formations aside, what it comes down to as far as
the
New England Patriots’ chances to win the Super Bowl against the
Seattle Seahawks,
is what they can fundamentally do on the football field. To execute
those fundamentals, the Patriots have to continue the offensive
efficiency they have shown throughout the regular season, while at the
same time elevating their defense to another level. Can they do any of
that?
This game has been marred with a lot of publicity that has concentrated
on an issue that probably doesn’t have very much to do with the ball
game itself. Sharp handicappers have left most of that on the shelf,
however, and they know that when New England takes the field against
Seattle, they have the ability to keep the defending world champions
off-balance.
In the Super Bowl betting odds that have been established on this game by the people at
America’s Bookie, it is all even:
New England Patriots pick
Seattle Seahawks
Over 47.5 points -110
Under 47.5 points -110
Some people may be surprised to find out that on a per-game basis,
Seattle has actually gained more yardage on offense. But New England was
first in the entire NFL with regard to yardage gained per point, at
12.2. So there is no question that they make their drives count. It is
not likely that they are going to cough the ball up gratuitously; the
Patriots had a +15 turnover margin this season, including their
post-season victories over Baltimore and Indianapolis. And when
examining the way those victories came about, we can probably construct a
pretty good case for New England to come away with the Lombardi Trophy.
Before we do that, let’s stipulate for
America’s Bookie
customers that New England is a team of poise, resilience and
experience. Everyone left him for dead after they went down to the
Kansas City Chiefs 41-14 in the season’s fourth week, but they only lost
one meaningful game the rest of the season, and that was at Lambeau
Field, where the Packers were almost flawless. And they came back from
two touchdowns behind, not once, but TWICE, against the Baltimore Ravens
in the Divisional Round.
What we have here is a team that can beat you with a lot of weapons, and
they all know their role perfectly. The Patriots have succeeded using
various running backs, and the latest guy they have, who is fresh at
this time of the season, is LeGarrette Blount, who rumbled for 148 yards
against Indianapolis. They may be a better running team than Seattle is
used to seeing, and let’s not forget that the Seahawks gave up 267
rushing yards over their two playoff games.
Rob Gronkowski is quite simply the best tight end in the game, and he
will change the way the Seahawks do their coverages. And this offensive
line did a tremendous job over the second half of the season. Tom Brady,
sacked only 21 times, gets rid of the football as quickly as a
quarterback in the game, and that is going to have the potential to
mitigate any effects of the Seattle pass rush.
America’s Bookie
patrons are well aware that New England has a lot of things on its
side. They are resourceful, and any NFL bettor familiar with coach Bill
Belichick can see that. The formations he used in a game against
Baltimore kept the Ravens’ defense off-balance, and we don’t have to
tell you how many tricks he may have up his sleeve. As mentioned before,
this is a team that has shown some determination and resilience. They
are also versatile, in the respect that they can win emphasizing either
the run or the pass. Remember that in the second half against the
Ravens, they did not hand the ball off to a running back once, and
gained 14 yards on the ground overall. Meanwhile, the next week against
the Colts, they destroyed that team with the running game. You simply
can’t afford to “overplay” them.
Maybe the “Deflategate” scandal turns out to be a positive for them, as
it takes away some attention from other things the media might otherwise
focus on. This is a team that is used to playing in the post-season,
even though they have fallen short eight straight times. But you always
have to keep in mind that Brady and Belichick have won three Super Bowl
championships together. And along the way this year, they have done a
pretty good job against quarterbacks, intercepting Joe Flacco twice and
stopping Andrew Luck cold (12 out of 33 for only 126 yards). So their
defense will be a factor as well. Seattle might have its “shutdown”
cornerback in Richard Sherman, but New England counters with Darrelle
Revis, who could take Seattle’s best wide receiver away on any given
down.
New England is frequently in the red zone; as a matter of fact, they
have been there an average of 4.3 times per game, which is best in the
NFL. Meanwhile, Seattle has allowed its opponents to score touchdowns on
57% of their red zone appearances. What happens inside the 20-yard line
could be a critical factor in who wins this game. And as we have laid
out for the
America’s Bookie crowd, the Patriots have a pretty good argument to make for themselves.
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