Point spread: New Orleans -6.5 Total line: 52.5 The Atlanta Falcons invade the Superdome this Monday night to take on the New Orleans Saints in a NFC South clash that has huge playoff implications for both teams. The kick-off is slated for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Atlanta comes into this game not only looking to keep the division race alive, but to avenge a painful 26-23 overtime loss to the Saints as a one-point home favorite in Week 10 after a controversial fourth-down call set up the winning field goal. This game remains the difference between the two teams as the Falcons are 9-5 straight-up and 6-7-1 against the spread. The total has stayed ?under? in nine of their 14 games this year.
The Falcons may have found some offense just in time after rolling-up 72 points in their last two games against Carolina and Jacksonville. Matt Ryan has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past two weeks after playing his worst game of the year the week before in Atlanta?s 17-10 loss to Houston as a one-point road favorite.
New Orleans has parlayed the first win over the Falcons into a six-game winning streak that has run its record to 11-3 SU (10-4 ATS). A win on Monday night would not only clinch the South, it would keep it in the running with the 49ers for the No.2 seed in the NFC. The total has gone an even 7-7 in its 14 games this season.
Much of the Saints? success this year can be directly attributed to the play of Drew Brees. He leads the NFL in passing yards with 4,780 while completing an incredible 71.5 percent of his throws. Brees has 37 touchdowns verse 11 interceptions and an overall passer rating of 109.1. He has been on fire the past four weeks with 14 touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Falcons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against the NFC and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. The total has stayed ?under? in eight of their last 10 games overall.
The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the NFC and 6-0 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. The total has stayed ?under? in 13 of their last 16 games against the NFC South.
Head-to-head in this series, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The total has stayed ?under? in three of the last four games between the two.
Both teams fully understand the importance of this game to their postseason plans, so the margin for error remains slim. This should result in a close game that once again goes down to the wire. The Saints get the win at home, but stick with Atlanta to cover with the 6.5 points.
The Free NFL Pick: New Orleans 24 Atlanta 23 
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