Thursday, March 1, 2012

Georgia Bulldogs vs. No.1 Kentucky Wildcats

Pointspread: Kentucky -19

Total Line: 128

The Georgia Bulldogs will try and pull-off a second-straight upset of a ranked team this Thursday night in a SEC match up against the No.1 ranked Kentucky Wildcats. The tip-off from Rupp Arena is slated for 9 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Georgia comes into this game fresh-off Saturday's stunning 76-62 victory over No.13 Florida as a 7.5-point home underdog. This shocker aside, the Bulldogs? overall body of work this season has been less than impressive with a 13-15 straight-up record overall and a 4-10 SU record in the conference. They are 11-13 against the spread and 6-6 ATS on the road. The total has stayed "under" in seven of the 12 road games.

Beating Florida at home is one thing, but going on the road against the No.1 team in the nation with an offense that is averaging 61.5 points a game and shooting just 39.7 percent from the floor is a whole other story. Georgia's goal on Thursday night should be to keep this a 10-point game late into the second half.

Kentucky has already clinched the SEC regular season title and has this game and a season-ending showdown with Florida left on the slate before the start of next week's conference tournament. The Wildcats are an impressive 28-1 SU overall and a perfect 18-0 SU at home, but the caution flag has to go up in light of a 10-17-1 overall record ATS and a dismal 4-12-1 record ATS at home.

On paper, this game should be over at the half with the Wildcats averaging 77.8 points and 39.2 rebounds a game while shooting 48.8 percent from the field. The question is, how motivated will Kentucky be playing a team it already beat 57-44 in late January as a 12-point road favorite?

Georgia is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU win and the total has stayed "under" in six of its last eight games following a SU win.

Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against a team with a losing record and 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The total has stayed ?under? in five of its last seven Thursday games.

The road team in this series is 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings and the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Rupp Arena. The total stayed "under" the 130.5-point line the last time they met but had gone "over" in four of the previous five meetings.

Stick with the recent trends in this series and the Wildcats inability to cover huge spreads at home, as Georgia keeps things close enough to cover on the road.

The Pick: Kentucky 68 Georgia 57

Georgia Bulldogs vs. No.1 Kentucky Wildcats

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.