ALDS Game 4: Red Sox vs. Yankees Preview and Pick

Yankees on Brink of Elimination in ALDS

The ALDS had been more of the same from the regular season, so far. The Yankees look to avoid elimination when they host the Red Sox in Game 4 of the American League Division Series on Tuesday. Boston crushed New York 16-1 last night to take a 2-1 series lead.

Tuesday, October 9 at 8:07 PM ET on TBS.


Yankee Stadium

Mostly Cloudy 71°F

Wind: 4mph blowing Out to L

Odds: Yankees are -135-moneyline favorites. The total is 9.

Game 4 Pitching Matchup

Rick Porcello threw 2/3 of an inning in relief in Game 1 and surrendered a hit. He went 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 191 1/3 innings over 33 starts this season. He was dominant against the Yankees.

He went 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA, an 0.65 WHIP and a complete game in four starts. Porcello is 10-8 with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 22 career starts against the Yankees. 

CC Sabathia had a decent season for the Yankees. He posted a 9-7 record with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP in 153 innings over 29 starts. He had mixed results in three starts against the Red Sox.

Sabathia posted a 1-0 record with a 4.50 ERA (giving up seven earned runs on 14 innings). The veteran lefty had a 1.64 WHIP in three starts this season.

Sabathia was just 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in his last five starts this season. He's 18-13 with a 4.14 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP and a complete game in 42 career starts against the Red Sox.

 

MLB Trends:

The Boston Red Sox are:

1-4 in their last five postseason road games

2-5 in Porcello's last seven starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game

The New York Yankees are:

24-8 in Sabathia's last 32 home starts

22-9 in Sabathia's last 31 starts against a team with a winning record

4-1 in Sabathia's last five home starts against the Red Sox

6-0 in Sabathia's last six Tuesday starts

6-2 in Sabathia's last eight starts against the Red Sox

ALDS This and That

This is a must-win game for the Yankees. They should play with the sense of urgency they lacked last night. The home crowd will be behind them, firing them up along the way.

Last night's setback was a disgrace for New York. At the end of the day it only counts as one loss. It happens in all sports, and there's usually a chance for redemption. 

Porcello hasn't pitched well at Yankee Stadium, going 1-4 with a 5.56 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in seven career starts. Sabathia is more proven in games like this and he has a 2.77 ERA in his last 13 starts against the Red Sox. 

Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez are only hitting a combined .169 (11-for-65) in their career against Sabathia. Porcello gave up five earned runs on 5 1/3 innings in his only start at Yankee Stadium this season. 

MLB Pick: Yankees -135 at Jazz Sports

Check odds here: https://goo.gl/dVwAAb

 Odds as seen on ESPN Chalk: https://goo.gl/ji6GJZ