US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump Still Potent First Debate - Handicappers Hideaway

Politics Odds: Donald Trump Still Potent After Poor Debate

Despite a lackluster performance in the first US Presidential
Election debate, Donald Trump hasn’t given back all that much of the
support he’s gained over the past month. Trump is +200 to win the
presidency; the Republicans were +250 in early September. Hillary
Clinton is the –275 favorite. While “Other” is available at +1600, no
one gives them a shot with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein being left out of
the debates.


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After the conventions, Trump found himself losing ground in a number
of “swing” states. Those states have turned red over the past month.
Monday’s debate at Hofstra University was another opportunity for
viewers to see what Trump is made of. Two days later, he remained ahead –
just barely – in Florida, Ohio, Nevada and North Carolina.


Those states could definitely turn blue again after more recent polls
are in. And there are two more presidential debates coming up. They
will be held October 9 at Washington University in St. Louis, and
October 19 at UNLV. Trump has essentially played his hand as a
“non-serious” candidate in the eyes of his critics, but his base of
white voters aged 45-plus with no college education remains strong.
Still, it will take another Clinton faux pas, and perhaps some outside interference, for the Republicans to win this race.


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US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump Still Potent First Debate - Handicappers Hideaway

2016 US Presidential Election: Trump Claws Back, But Still Behind - Handicappers Hideaway

With just over two months until the 2016 US presidential election, the
betting odds appear to have stabilized when it comes to the winner.
Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party have given back the gains they
made in recent weeks, falling back from –450 to –325, while Donald Trump
and the Republicans have improved from +325 to +250.



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Trump is still projected to receive about 44% of the popular vote on
November 8, but his party has picked up steam in some key “swing”
states. The GOP have climbed from +200 to +170 in both Iowa and North
Carolina over the past two weeks, while Utah has vaulted from –300 to
–700 to vote Republican. Meanwhile, Trump remains a +200 underdog to
take Florida and Nevada, and the Republicans have slipped from +200 to
+250 in Ohio. Clinton and the Dems are favored in 17 of the 22 states
available on the futures market.



This has been a relatively quiet period for both parties, especially the
Democrats, but business should pick up again on September 26 with the
first of five scheduled debates – four between Clinton and Trump, and
another between vice-presidential candidates Tim Kaine and Mike Pence.



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2016 US Presidential Election: Trump Claws Back, But Still Behind - Handicappers Hideaway

Politics Odds: Tough Times for Trump; Dems Soaring - Handicappers Hideaway

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Republican Party. As Donald
Trump's presidential campaign turns more and more into a pro-wrestling
show, Hillary Clinton and the Democrats see their election chances
improve. In the past two weeks, the Republicans have slipped from +250
to +325 to win the 2016 US presidential race, while the Dems have taken
another step forward from –325 to –450.



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It's been three weeks since the Democratic National Convention wrapped
up in Philadelphia, and Clinton's surge in the polls hasn't shown any
signs of slowing down. Trump is doing most of the work for her by making
outlandish comments that appeal to his base. He's projected to receive
about 44% of the popular vote, so it's not a small base by any means,
but hardly enough to win the election in a virtual two-horse race.



Trump's weakness in the key “swing” states can be seen on the props
market, where his party's a +200 underdog to win the popular vote in
Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina. There are even some
“red” states that are anything but locked down; the Republicans are just
–250 to win Missouri, and –300 in Utah.



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Politics Odds: Tough Times for Trump; Dems Soaring - Handicappers Hideaway

Politics Odds: DNC Bounce Leaves Republicans Scrambling - Handicappers Hideaway

Two weeks ago, Donald Trump and the Republican Party pulled even in the
polls with Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. Pretty much everything has
gone wrong for Trump since then. The Republicans have fallen from +200
to +250 to win the 2016 US presidential election; Clinton and the
Democrats are up from –260 to –325.



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The Democratic Party is enjoying the standard “bounce” coming out of
last week's convention; however, Trump has added to his problems by
making inflammatory comments about the Muslim parents of a fallen
American soldier. Trump also made the mistake of tweeting a picture
showing him about to eat a piece of Kentucky Fried Chicken – with a
knife and fork. On his private jet.



There are still three months to go before the election, but unless Clinton makes a major faux pas,
or outside forces (terrorists, Russian hackers) intervene, things are
not likely to improve from here for the GOP. In appealing to his base,
Trump has split the Republican Party in two, alienating people who would
otherwise be supporting his presidential campaign. We're likely to see
more of these disenfranchised Republicans come out and publicly endorse
Clinton, after the Congressional primaries are over.



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Politics Odds: DNC Bounce Leaves Republicans Scrambling - Handicappers Hideaway