Monday Night Football: Chiefs vs Broncos Preview and Pick

Monday Night Football Features Two Old Rivalries With New Blood

Week Four of the NFL season comes to a close with Monday Night Football. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos will battle at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Kickoff is set for 8:15 pm EST and ESPN will have the coverage.

Oddsmakers opened the Chiefs as -4.5-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total opened at 55. The Chiefs are now 3.5-point favorites. The total is down to 53.5.

Three games into his first full season as a starter, second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes already has bumped Peyton Manning from the NFL record books. He chunked his 13th TD pass of the season last week. The pass broke Mannings record of 12 TD's passing to start a season.

The Chiefs are the league's highest-scoring team behind Mahomes. Mahomes also has yet to throw an interception. He has already been named AFC Offensive Player of the Week on two occasions.

Kansas City has won five consecutive matchups against Denver. The Broncos, who won their first two games by a total of four points, will try to bounce back from a 27-14 loss at Baltimore last week. They surrendered 20 unanswered points.

Mahomes has Been Lights Out

The Chiefs are 3-0 to start the young NFL season. Mahomes is a big reason for that. Mahomes threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns in last week's 38-27 home win over San Francisco. All the TD passes were in the 2nd quarter.

This is the third time in as many weeks Kansas City has scored at least 38 points.

Explosive wide receiver Tyreek Hill finally was held in check and kept out of the end zone. Tight end Travis Kelce picked up the slack with eight catches for 114 yards.

Kareem Hunt, who led the league in rushing as a rookie in 2017, is averaging 3.2 yards per carry. He had a pair of 1-yard TD runs.

The Chiefs have struggled on the other side of the ball. They rank last in yards allowed at 474 yards per game. They are 30th in points surrendered at 30.7 ppg.

Hill has scored four touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving and one kick return) in three games versus Denver.

Keenum and the Broncos Come Into Monday Night Football Primed and Ready

The Broncos have started the 2018 NFL season 2-1. They seem to have a leader in Case Keenum. Keenum signed a two-year deal with Denver after a breakout season in which he led Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game.

One issue so far is he already has been intercepted five times. That is just two fewer than his total for the entire 2017 campaign.

Emmanuel Sanders is the team's leading receiver with 19 receptions. Demaryius Thomas has 16. Keenum is getting the ball to his targets.

Denver's best hope may be leaning on the rookie tandem of running backs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. They have accumulated 350 yards for the league's fourth-ranked rushing attack.

Denver will need to generate pressure against Mahomes. They have a group led by former Super Bowl MVP Miller, who is tied for the NFL lead with four sacks. Miller has registered eight sacks and 11 tackles for loss in his last eight contests against the Chiefs.

The Broncos lost TE Jake Butt to a torn ACL suffered in Thursday's practice.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Broncos 23

Recent Form

Name	Record	ATS	Offense	Defense	Diff	ATS Home	ATS Away	OU Record	OU Home	OU Away
Kansas City	3-0	3-0	39.33	30.67	8.66	1-0	2-0	3-0	1-0	2-0
Denver	2-1	0-2-1	20.33	23.33	-3	0-1-1	0-1	1-2	1-1	0-1

Power Stats

Yards Per Point

Name	Offense	Defense	Differential
KC	10.13	15.45	-5.33
DEN	18.82	14.59	4.24

Yards Per Pass

Name	Offense	Defense	Differential
KC	14.27	11.70	2.57
DEN	10.82	10.79	0.03

Yards Per Rush

Name	Offense	Defense	Differential
KC	3.88	5.22	-1.34
DEN	5.17	3.28	1.89

Team Records

Kansas City Chiefs

Name	Record	Home	Away	ATS	ATS Home	ATS Away	Offense	Defense	Diff
Overall	3-0	1-0	2-0	3-0	1-0	2-0	39.33	30.67	8.66
vs Conf	2-0	0-0	2-0	2-0	0-0	2-0	40.00	32.50	7.50
vs Div	2-0	1-0	1-0	2-0	1-0	1-0	38.00	27.50	10.50
Last 3	3-0	1-0	2-0	3-0	1-0	2-0	39.33	30.67	8.66

Denver Broncos

Name	Record	Home	Away	ATS	ATS Home	ATS Away	Offense	Defense	Diff
Overall	2-1	2-0	0-1	0-2-1	0-1-1	0-1	20.33	23.33	-3.00
vs Conf	1-1	1-0	0-1	0-2	0-1	0-1	17.00	23.00	-6.00
vs Div	2-0	2-0	0-0	0-1-1	0-1-1	0-0	23.50	21.50	2.00
Last 3	2-1	2-0	0-1	0-2-1	0-1-1	0-1	20.33	23.33	-3.00

Monday Night Football Supergrid

Title	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Away Team Overall Scoring vs Home Team Overall Defense	39.33	1	23.33	16
Away Team Road Passing vs Home Team Home Passing Defense	289.00	10	261.50	22
Away Team Road Rushing vs Home Team Home Rushing Defense	116.50	16	78.00	5
Home Team Overall Scoring vs Away Team Overall Defense	20.33	20	30.67	28
Home Team Home Passing vs Away Team Road Passing Defense	270.50	15	430.00	31
Home Team Home Rushing vs Away Team Road Rushing Defense	157.00	3	78.00	10

Head To Head Summary

Name	Record	ATS	OU	Score	Rush	YPR	PA	CP	PY	TY	TO +/-
Kansas City	5-5	6-4	6-3-1	25.00	123.70	4.53	35.70	58.54	211.90	335.60	1.50
Denver	5-5	4-6	6-3-1	23.90	114.20	4.06	36.80	55.98	246.30	360.50	2.20

Head To Head Detail

Date	Away	Home	Score	Line	Total	OU Result	ARY	APY	ATY	ATT	HRY	HPY	HTY	HTT	Away Team Attempts	Home Team Attempts	Away Team Completions	Home Team Completions
Dec 31, 2017	KC	DEN	27-24	110	269	379	2	110	226	336	3
Oct 30, 2017	DEN	KC	19-29	177	187	364	5	79	197	276	2
Dec 25, 2016	DEN	KC	10-33	63	183	246	3	238	246	484	1
Nov 27, 2016	KC	DEN	30-27	83	190	273	0	124	340	464	1
Nov 15, 2015	KC	DEN	29-13	106	197	303	0	69	152	221	5
Sep 17, 2015	DEN	KC	31-24	61	238	299	1	144	170	314	5
Nov 30, 2014	DEN	KC	29-16	214	174	388	1	41	110	151	3
Sep 14, 2014	KC	DEN	17-24	133	247	380	0	88	237	325	0
Dec 1, 2013	DEN	KC	35-28	132	403	535	2	159	293	452	1
Nov 17, 2013	KC	DEN	17-27	144	200	344	1	104	323	427	1

Monday Night Football Betting Odds and Trends

Kansas City Chiefs
KCis 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Kansas City is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Kansas City is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Denver

Denver Broncos
The Broncos 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
The Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The Broncos are 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Denver is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Team Last 5 Games

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	ATS Result	offensive rush yards	offensive passing yards	offensive total yards	defensive rush yards	defensive passing yards	defensive total yards	turnovers	Location
Sep 23, 2018	SF	38-27	W	-6/53.5	W/O	77	307	384	178	228	406	0	H
Sp 16, 2018	PIT	42-37	W	4/52.5	W/O	127	322	449	33	442	475	1	A
Sp 9, 2018	LAC	38-28	W	3/48.5	W/O	106	256	362	123	418	541	-2	A
Jan 6, 2018	TEN	21-22	L	-8.5/44.5	L/U	69	256	325	202	195	397	-2	H
Dec 31, 2017	DEN	27-24	W	3/37.5	W/O	110	269	379	110	226	336	-1	A

Denver Broncos

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	ATS Result	offensive rush yards	offensive passing yards	offensive total yards	defensive rush yards	defensive passing yards	defensive total yards	turnovers	Location
Sep 23, 2018	BAL	14-27	L	5.5/46	L/U	120	173	293	77	265	342	1	A
Sp 16, 2018	OAK	20-19	W	-6/45	L/U	168	217	385	92	281	373	1	H
Sep 9, 2018	SEA	27-24	W	-3/42.5	P/O	146	324	470	64	242	306	0	H
Dec 31, 2017	KC	24-27	L	-3/37.5	L/O	110	226	336	110	269	379	1	H
Dec 24, 2017	WAS	11-27	L	3/39	L/U	159	171	330	87	299	386	1	A

Next up:
Kansas City home to Jacksonville Sunday, October 7
Denver at New York Sunday, October 7

Get a 150% Deposit at BetPhoenix Online Sportsbook!!!!

Rockies and Dodgers Play for NL West Title

Winner of Game Wins NL West Title; Loser Plays in NL Wildcard

The NL West couldn't be settled after 162 games of the Major League Baseball Season. The Rockies and the Dodgers will square off Monday afternoon to see who wins the division. The winner will be crowned NL West Champions. The loser will play in the NL Wildcard Game Tuesday.

TV: 4:09 p.m. ET, ESPN

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies RH German Marquez (14-10, 3.76 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (7-5, 2.76)

ODDS: The Dodgers are -175-moneyline favorites. The total is 7 Under -120.

Both of these teams will look to carry over their offensive production from their final regular-season contests.  The Dodgers swept three from San Francisco over the weekend while scoring 28 runs. They scored 15 on Sunday.

Colorado won nine of its last 10 contests after a 12-0 rout of Washington in Sunday's finale.

Dodgers Have Owned Rockies in Regular Season

The winner advances to host the NL East champion Atlanta Braves in the opener of the best-of-five Division Series on Thursday. The loser settles for playing in the Wild Card Game on Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers or the Chicago Cubs.

Two young hard-throwing right-handed pitchers will take the mound Monday. Los Angeles hands the ball to Walker Buehler. The Rockies counter with German Marquez. He has two wins and a no-decision in three starts against the Dodgers this season.

Colorado's Nolan Arenado went deep twice Sunday, giving him an NL-most 37. Manny Machado takes a nine-game hitting streak (12-for-36) into the contest for Los Angeles. They have won 12 of 19 games in the season series.

Both Startig Pitchers are Dealing Heading into NL West Tiebreaker

Marquez won his last two starts. That includes last Wednesday when he permitted three hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings against Philadelphia. The 23-year-old has registered 11 or more strikeouts in five of his last six outings. He boasts 221 over 191 1/3 frames this season.

Joc Pederson is 3-for-10 with two homers versus Marquez. He is 2-0 with a 3.19 ERA in five career starts against the Dodgers.

Buehler recorded four quality starts in five opportunities during September. He only managed only a 1-1 record in that stretch despite a sparkling 1.95 ERA. Buehler owns 148 strikeouts over 130 2/3 innings. He held Arizona to two runs over six innings in his last start.

The youngster has lost only once since Aug. 1. That was at Colorado on Sept. 8.

Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez are each 3-for-10 against Buehler.  He is 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts versus Colorado in 2018.

This and That in the NL West

Los Angeles has won at least 90 games for the sixth straight season. That matches the streak of the Brooklyn Dodgers (1951-56) for the franchise record.

Colorado CF Charlie Blackmon hit for the cycle Sunday. He did this by going 4-for-5 with three RBIs. He has a team-high five homers against the Dodgers this season. Arenado has gone deep four times versus Los Angeles in 2018.

Los Angeles OF Yasiel Puig is 21-for-48 with five homers versus the Rockies this year.

PREDICTION: Dodgers 5, Rockies 4

Recent Form

Team	record	money	vs LHP	vs RHP	Fave	Dog	O/U	Diff
Colorado	91-71	$1,803.00	33-27	58-44	56-38	35-33	67-86-9	0.23
LA Dodgers	91-71	-$1,142.00	40-25	51-46	85-68	6-3	76-80-6	1.18

Pitchers Last 3 Starts

German Marquez (14-10) ERA: 3.81

event date	Opponent	Result	score	OU Result	ip	money
Sep 26, 2018	PHI	W	14-0	O	7	$50.00
Sep 21, 2018	ARI	W	6-2	O	7	$105.00
Sep 15, 2018	SF	L	0-3	U	6	-$100.00

Walker Buehler (7-4) ERA: 2.76

event date	Opponent	Result	score	OU Result	ip	money
Sep 25, 2018	ARI	L	3-4	U	6	-$100.00
Sep 19, 2018	COL	W	5-2	U	6	$43.00
Sep 14, 2018	STL	W	3-0	U	8	$81.00

Bullpen

Colorado's relievers have pitched 11.1 innings in the last 3 games.
LA Dodgers's relievers have pitched 9 innings in the last 3 games.

Pitcher Recent Starts Vs Opponent

Colorado Rockies - German Marquez

Date	score	Winner	ip	hits	Runs	Earned Runs	walks	strikeouts	Decision
Jun 30, 2018	3-1	COL	8	2	1	1	0	9	Win
Jun 2, 2018	12-4	LA	6	7	4	4	3	8	No Decision
May 21, 2018	2-1	COL	7	2	1	1	2	5	Win
Sep 30, 2017	5-3	LA	6	6	3	3	1	2	No Decision
Sep 8, 2017	5-4	COL	4	6	4	2	3	2	No Decision

Los Angeles Dodgers - Walker Buehler

Date	score	Winner	ip	hits	Runs	Earned Runs	walks	strikeouts	Decision
Sep 19, 2018	5-2	LA	6	3	2	0	1	12	No Decision
Sep 8, 2018	4-2	COL	6	6	4	4	1	7	Loss
Aug 11, 2018	3-2	COL	7	4	0	0	3	6	No Decision
Jun 2, 2018	12-4	LA	5	8	4	4	2	2	No Decision
May 21, 2018	2-1	COL	7	2	1	1	0	6	No Decision

Supergrid

Title	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Away Team Overall Scoring vs Home Team Overall Defense	4.80	7	3.75	2
Away Team Away Scoring vs Home Team Home Defense	4.11	21	3.64	3
Home Team Overall Scoring vs Away Team Overall Defense	4.93	5	4.57	20
Home Team Home Scoring vs Away Team Road Defense	4.46	16	4.15	10

Head To Head Detail

Date	Away	away score	Home	home score	line	O/U	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Away Hits	Home Hits	Away Walks	Home Walks	Away Strikeouts	Home Strikeouts
Sep 19, 2018	COL	2	LA	5	-230	7.5	U	Tyler Anderson (L)	Walker Buehler (R)	4	5	1	3	16	5
Sep 18, 2018	COL	2	LA	3	-190	7	U	Kyle Freeland (L)	Clayton Kershaw (L)	4	6	5	4	9	7
Sep 17, 2018	COL	2	LA	8	-161	7.5	O	Jon Gray (R)	Hyun-Jin Ryu (L)	6	11	2	6	6	8
Sep 9, 2018	LA	9	COL	6	102	10.5	O	Rich Hill (L)	Tyler Anderson (L)	14	8	7	1	8	10
Sep 8, 2018	LA	2	COL	4	118	10	U	Walker Buehler (R)	Kyle Freeland (L)	6	7	3	1	14	8
Sep 7, 2018	LA	4	COL	2	135	9.5	U	Clayton Kershaw (L)	Jon Gray (R)	8	10	9	2	9	11
Aug 12, 2018	LA	3	COL	4	172	12	U	Rich Hill (L)	Chad Bettis (R)	7	5	5	3	6	7
Aug 11, 2018	LA	2	COL	3	126	11	U	Walker Buehler (R)	Kyle Freeland (L)	6	6	3	3	11	8
Aug 10, 2018	LA	4	COL	5	-108	11	U	Kenta Maeda (R)	Jon Gray (R)	10	9	1	3	5	13
Aug 9, 2018	LA	8	COL	5	121	10.5	O	Ross Stripling (R)	Tyler Anderson (L)	13	10	2	4	11	4

NL West Betting Odds & Trends

Colorado Rockies
Col is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Colorado is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dodgers is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado

Team Vs Division Or Conference

Colorado Rockies

	record	Home	Away	Fave	Dog	O/U	vs LHP	vs RHP
Overall	91-71	47-34	44-37	56-32	40-36	67-86-9	33-27	58-44
Last 10	9-1	6-1	3-0	7-0	3-0	6-4	1-0	8-1
vs Div	41-35	22-16	19-19	28-16	17-17	29-43-4	18-18	23-17
vs AL	13-7	8-2	5-5	8-4	5-3	6-12-2	6-2	7-5
vs NL	78-64	39-32	39-32	48-28	35-33	61-74-7	27-25	51-39

Los Angeles Dodgers

	record	Home	Away	Fave	Dog	O/U	vs LHP	vs RHP
Overall	91-71	44-37	47-34	85-66	7-4	76-80-6	40-25	51-46
Last 10	7-3	3-1	4-2	7-3	0-0	6-3-1	5-1	2-2
vs Div	44-32	23-14	21-18	43-30	2-2	34-38-4	25-13	19-19
vs AL	12-8	6-4	6-4	12-7	0-0	8-12	6-2	6-6
vs NL	79-63	38-33	41-30	73-59	7-4	68-68-6	34-23	45-40

Team Last 5 Games

Colorado Rockies

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	Total	starter	ip	opposing starter	Location
Sep 30, 2018	WSH	12-0	W	-190	11	Tyler Anderson	7.2	Erick Fedde	H
Sep 29, 2018	WSH	2-12	L	-105	9.5	Jon Gray	2	S Strasburg	H
Sep 28, 2018	WSH	5-2	W	-200	10.5	Kyle Freeland	6	Joe Ross	H
Sep 27, 2018	PHI	5-3	W	-185	11	Antonio Senzatela	4.2	J Arrieta	H
Sep 26, 2018	PHI	14-0	W	-200	9.5	German Marquez	7	Nick Pivetta	H

Los Angeles Dodgers

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	Total	starter	ip	opposing starter	Location
Sep 30, 2018	SF	15-0	W	-240	7.5	R Hill	7	Andrew Suarez	A
Sep 29, 2018	SF	10-6	W	-280	7	C Kershaw	5	Dereck Rodriguez	A
Sep 28, 2018	SF	3-1	W	-187	7	H Ryu	6	M Bumgarner	A
Sep 26, 2018	ARI	2-7	L	-130	8	Ross Stripling	1.2	Z Greinke	A
Sep 25, 2018	ARI	3-4	L	-225	8.5	Walker Buehler	6	Matt Koch	A

 

Get a 150% Bonus at BetPhoenix Online Sportsbook!!!!

BetAnySports Free NFL Week 4 Pick- Bills at Packers

Bills Have Momentum as They Face Packers

The Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills have an intriguing matchup in NFL Week 4 Action. The Bills stay on the road this Sunday in a second-straight matchup against the NFC North. They a trip to Lambeau Field to face the Packers in a 1 p.m. start on CBS.

BetAnySports has opened the Packers as 10-point favorites with the total set at 44.5 points. The Packers are now 9.5-point favorites. The total is not at 44.

Bills Need to Play Consistent Against Packers

Buffalo was the top betting story in the NFL this past Sunday. They had a stunning 27-6 upset on the road against Minnesota as a heavy 16.5-point underdog.

This followed two lopsided loss to Baltimore on road and the Los Angeles Chargers at home in its first two games. The Bills are 1-2 both straight-up and against the spread. The total has gone OVER in two of the three games at BetAnySports.

Rookie quarterback Josh Allen ended the game against the Vikings with 196 yards passing and one touchdown throw. He completed 15 of his 22 passing attempts. Chris Ivory caught three passes for 70 yards while also leading the Bills in rushing with 56 yards on 20 carries.

You can also credit Buffalo’s defense for the upset with an interception and two fumble recoveries.

Packers Have Not Met Expectations

Green Bay has also failed to meet expectations as one of the top teams in the NFC North. They are at 1-1-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.

The Packers needed a 28-point fourth quarter rally to get past Chicago in Week 1. They were seven-point home favorites. They had to settle for a 29-29 tie against Minnesota as slight 1.5-point underdogs at home.

This past Sunday they were on the wrong end of a 31-17 loss to Washington. Linesmakers had them as 2.5-point road favorites. The total went OVER BetAnySports’ closing line in all three games.

Aaron Rodgers has completed 66.4 percent of his first 116 passing attempts. That has totaled 832 yards and six touchdowns against zero interceptions. His mobility has been hampered by a knee injury he sustained against the Bears.

The rushing offense has also been an issue with an average of 89 yards per game, which is ranked 24^th in the league.

Green Bay’s defense falls to 23^rd in the NFL in average points allowed (27.7).

The Bills have a ton of momentum on their side coming into Sunday’s game against the Packers. This is a team that has stumbled out of the gate in its first three games.

That being said, I am still going to lay the 9.5 points and take Green Bay ATS at home. Lambeau is a place where it is still hard to get a win for even the best teams in the league.

Get a 30% Bonus on Every Deposit at Top Rated BetAnySports Online Sportsbook!!!

Football Betting - NFL Week 4 Games to Watch

By: The Frisco Kid

NFL Week 4 is When Teams Start to Separate Themselves

The NFL Week 4 slate kicked off with a very entertaining game in La La Land. We saw 48 first half points, leading to a 38-31 victory for the LA Rams over the Minnesota Vikings.

This one went well OVER the total of 49. The total went UNDER in the second half with the 2nd half total being set at 26.5. Only 21 points scored. I recently wrote an article about 2nd half total trends. If it stays true, it could be gold Jerry, gold!

Here are a few games to watch coming into Sunday’s action in Week 4.

Dolphins @ Patriots | Sept. 30th, 2018, 1:00PM ET | Pats -6.5 | Total 48.5

Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that the Dolphins would be the undefeated team coming into this one? Regardless of what we expected, the truth is the Dolphins are 3-0. They have wins over the Titans, Jets and Raiders. The Fins are also 3-0 ATS.

Five Value – Added Online Sportsbook Features at Americas Bookie

After starting the season with a win at home against the Texans, the Patriots have now lost back-to-back road games. They lost to Jacksonville and Detroit by double-digits. Not even Tom Terrific can inject life into this anemic offense.

Help is on the way with Justin Edelman returning from suspension in Week 5. Josh Norman getting up to speed on the offense.

New England was a 7.5-point road favorite in Detroit and a 1-point favorite in Jacksonville. That puts their SU and ATS records at 1-2. I just spoke on the Pats offense. They are 25^th in total offense, but their troubles don’t end there.

They are 26^th in total defense, giving up the 22^nd most passing yards per game (263). The squad is an astounding 31^st in rushing yards allowed per game (143.3). Miami is 23^rd in total offense and 19^th in total defense.

Bengals @ Falcons | Sept. 30th, 2018, 1:00PM ET | Falcons -3.5 | Total 53.5

I predict fireworks in this one. Although only one game has a total higher than this one (KC at DEN 54.5), reaching the OVER is very achievable. The Bengals scored 34 points in their first two games. They were held to 21 last week against a tough Panthers defense.

Andy Dalton did throw for 352 yards last week, but he only completed 63% of his passes. He also threw FOUR interceptions.

How to become a Bookie  - Smart Bookies Use Two or Three Pay Per Head Providers

The Falcons forgot to get ready for their season opener in Philly, and looked flat from the get go. They scored only 12 points that night. They have since scored 31 vs. the Panthers in Week 2 and 37 in an overtime thriller with the Saints in Week 3.

This game features a couple of the best wide receivers in the game with Julio Jones and A.J. Green. We also will see a couple of the best up and coming stars at the same position. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd.

The Falcons rookie wide receiver has taken the football world by storm. Ridley broke out last week for 146 yards and 3 TDs after getting the first TD and reception of his career in Week 2.

Third year WR Tyler Boyd has already equaled his 2017 production heading into Week 4. After going for 91 yards and a TD on 9 catches in Week 2, last week he went off for 132 yards and another TD.

With Green good to go, watch for the depleted Falcon defense to have trouble stopping the Bengals duo. Although the same can be said for Atlanta’s Alabama wide outs.

Eagles @ Titans | Sept. 30th, 2018, 1:00PM ET | Titans +3.5 | Total 41

Expect NFL Week 4 to show some real life drama. It is maybe one of the best reality TV shows there has ever been, and ever will be. It’s a roller coaster ride. Last week, the Titans beat a Jaguars team that had just beaten the Patriots.

The Titans managed only 83 yards through the air and 150 more on the ground, en route to a 9-6 win.

Early Line Over Reactions for NFL Week 4

The Eagles got Cap’n Wentz back last week. Although it was not easy, the Eagles went to 2-1 after a 20-16 victory over the Colts. I wrote an article last week, titled “NFL Futures | Super Bowl Winner | Week 3”. I stated:

“Only two short weeks ago the Eagles were a top most power rankings. Getting $1150 on a $100 bet on the Eagles to repeat as Super Bowl champs is perhaps giving the best value of any team on the board.”

While I still believe that statement about value to be true, it is the power rankings part I want to focus on. If you have read my stuff before, you know I handicap my own games prior to looking at any offshore or Vegas odds.

I use a six-category system. I weigh different phases of the game against the other. For purposes of this article, because my opinion means jack-squat, here are the Power Rankings from 3 popular sites for the Titans and Eagles.

Top 3 Google hits for NFL Power Rankings

NFL.com:                               Eagles #3                               Titans #19

ESPN.com:                            Eagles #3                               Titans #20

CBSsports.com:    Eagles #3                               Titans #5 (up 15 spots from last week)

Those three sets of Power Rankings average out to be Eagles #3 and Titans #14. I do not know the ins and outs of how they come up with these. I would suspect it’s similar to mine and encompass a wide array of information.

What is a Pay Per Head | What do they offer | How does it Work?

The Point being going into NFL Week 4 action is this. Is 3.5-points enough separating that large of a gap in the power rankings? Did the 9-6 victory over the Jags give the Titans that much of a boost?

I don’t think so. There looks to be a lot of money on the Eagles moneyline. expect the spread to get closer to 5 as game-time approaches.

These are three games I will be watching as Sunday in NFL Week 4 action.

Will the Pats get on track or will the Dolphins take a commanding lead in the AFC East? You best get your popcorn ready for Cincy & the Falcons. and Get on the Eagles now before that lines moves out of your favor. Good luck and see you back here next week.

No. 7 Stanford vs. No. 8 Notre Dame College Football Preview and Pick

No. 7 Stanford vs. No. 8 Notre Dame College Football Preview

Two ranked opponents collide in South Bend, Indiana on Saturday when the Stanford Cardinal visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Saturday, September 29 at 7:30 PM ET

Notre Dame Stadium

Odds: Notre Dame is a 4-point favorite. The total is 52.5.

Stanford Cardinal

Stanford escaped with a 38-31 come-from-behind overtime win against Oregon last Saturday night. The Cardinal trailed 24-7 in the third quarter and the Ducks were on the one-yard line. They were about to make the game 31-7.

Two fumbles, with the second one being returned 80 yards for a score, changed the course of the game.

K.J. Costello completed 19 of 26 passes for 327 yards and three touchdowns. He will be a player to watch in this contest because Notre Dame has been below average defending the pass so far.

The Cardinal are averaging 264.0 passing yards (47th in the nation) and 104.3 rushing yards (120th). Stanford ranks 77th with 29.0 points per game and 10th with 13.5 points against.

K.J. Costello has passed for 1056 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Bryce Love has 254 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 59 carries. JJ Arcega-Whiteside has 17 receptions for 408 yards and seven touchdowns.

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame has a solid ground game and a strong receiving corps. Quarterback Brandon Wimbush struggled early on, so they decided to give a chance to his backup Ian Book. On the road against Wake Forest Book led the Fighting Irish to a 56-27 win.

The Notre Dame offense finally looked great. Book earned himself another start over Wimbush after completing 25 of 34 passes for 325 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 43 yards and three touchdowns.

The Fighting Irish finished with 241 rushing yards, led by Jafar Armstrong's 98 yards and two touchdowns on eight carries.

The Fighting Irish are averaging 231.8 passing yards (71st in the nation) and 183.8 rushing yards (60th). Notre Dame ranks 64th with 31.5 points per game and 33rd with 19.3 points against.

Ian Book has passed for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Tony Jones Jr. has 263 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 46 carries. Miles Boykin has nine receptions for 167 yards.

 



 

College Football Trends:

The Under is:

38-16 in Stanford's last 54 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game

12-4 in Stanford's last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game

9-2 in Stanford's last 11 games following a straight up win

8-3 in Stanford's last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game

10-4 in Stanford's last 14 games overall

16-5 in Notre Dame's last 21 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game

7-1 in Notre Dame's last eight games overall

7-1 in Notre Dame's last eight non-conference games

4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Notre Dame

7-1 in the last eight meetings

The Notre Dame offense exploded against Wake Forest last week. I don't see them putting up many points on this Stanford defense. Stanford hasn't been solid on offense so far, especially their running game, so they'll look to establish the run, which will eat the clock.

College Football Pick: Under 52.5 (-110) at Jazz Sports

Check odds here: https://goo.gl/dVwAAb

Odds as seen on ESPN Chalk: https://goo.gl/ji6GJZ

 

Miami Hurricanes Host UNC on Short Week

The North Carolina Tar Heels and the Miami-FL Hurricanes meet Thursday Night College Football on ESPN. They battle at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami with the kickoff set for this ACC clash set for 8 pm EST.

Oddsmakers have set Miami as a 17.5-point favorite. The total is now at 56.

It's a short week for North Carolina and Miami. Both teams are coming off victories. The Hurricanes moved up to No. 16 after their 31-17 triumph over Florida International. The Tar Heels earned their first victory of the season. They outlasted Pitt 38-35 in the school's ACC and home opener.

Miami has a QB Controversy

The question of the week in Miami is who will open at quarterback. Redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry replaced embattled senior Malik Rosier Saturday for the third series in a planned move. Rosier was last year's starter who got off to a rocky beginning this season.

He never got back in and Perry went on to hit 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns. It was his first extended action to spark a Hurricanes offense that has been inconsistent with Rosier at the helm.

The Miami Hurricanes are 3-1 on the season. Tonight is their first ACC contest. Rosier has had his moments as the Hurricanes' starter since the start of the 2017 season. He is completing just 52.1 percent of his passes this year and 54 percent last year.

Perry is showing far greater accuracy at 66.7 percent.This is a big reason why a switch to the younger, more dynamic Perry appears imminent.

Freshman tight end Brevin Jordan is becoming a more integral part of the attack. He is tied for second on the team in receptions with 12. He also has  three touchdowns and 11 of his catches coming with Perry at quarterback.

The Tar Heels' ground game will be challenged by a Miami run defense giving up just 78.8 yards per game. That is fourth best in the nation. Gerald Willis III tied for tops in the country in tackles for loss (10) and Jonathan Garvin ranked sixth (8.5).

The Tar Heels Have a QB Controversy of Their Own

The Tar Heels may have a quarterback quandary of their own. Sophomore Chazz Surratt is one of seven players returning from a three-game suspension.

Head coach Larry Fedora indicated that junior Nathan Elliott will get the nod after his impressive 313-yard, two-touchdown outing against Pittsburgh.

UNC is 1-2 overall to start the season. They are 1-0 in ACC action. Surratt led the Tar Heels with 1,342 yards passing and 13 touchdowns (eight passing, five rushing) in nine games last season (seven starts).

His return will give Fedora a solid option should Elliott struggle as he did the first two weeks. The offensive line has surrendered just one sack in three games. The unit owned the line of scrimmage against Pittsburgh.

It also played a major role in the success of Elliott and a ground attack that pounded out a season-high 173 yards, led by Antonio Williams' 114 yards and two touchdowns.

Last season, North Carolina out-gained Miami 428-415 in a 24-19 loss. Surratt was injured in the first quarter and Elliott came in and threw three interceptions against the Canes' opportunistic defense.

Recent Form

Name	Record	ATS	Offense	Defense	Diff	ATS Home	ATS Away	OU Record	OU Home	OU Away
North Carolina	1-2	1-1-1	24.67	33.33	-8.66	1-0	0-1-1	2-1	1-0	1-1
Miami-FL	3-1	2-2	43.50	18.50	25	1-1	1-1	3-1	1-1	2-0

Power Stats

Yards Per Point

Name	Offense	Defense	Differential
UNC	15.97	11.91	4.06
MI-FL	10.33	12.09	-1.77

Yards Per Pass

Name	Offense	Defense	Differential
UNC	11.03	10.80	0.23
MI-FL	14.31	13.49	0.82

Yards Per Rush

Name	Offense	Defense	Differential
UNC	4.83	4.54	0.29
MI-FL	4.84	2.14	2.7

Team Records

North Carolina Tar Heels

Name	Record	Home	Away	ATS	ATS Home	ATS Away	Offense	Defense	Diff
Overall	1-2	1-0	0-2	1-1-1	1-0	0-1-1	24.67	33.33	-8.66
vs Conf	1-0	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-0	0-0	38.00	35.00	3.00
Last 3	1-2	1-0	0-2	1-1-1	1-0	0-1-1	24.67	33.33	-8.66

Miami Hurricanes

Name	Record	Home	Away	ATS	ATS Home	ATS Away	Offense	Defense	Diff
Overall	3-1	2-0	1-1	2-2	1-1	1-1	43.50	18.50	25.00
vs Conf	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Last 3	3-0	2-0	1-0	2-1	1-1	1-0	52.33	13.67	38.66

Supergrid

Title	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Away Team Overall Scoring vs Home Team Overall Defense	24.67	100	18.50	33
Awy Team Road Passing vs Home Team Home Passing Defense	185.50	75	109.00	12
Away Team Road Rushing vs Home Team Home Rushing Defense	162.50	52	23.50	1
Home Team Overall Scoring vs Away Team Overall Defense	43.50	20	33.33	101
Hme Team Home Passing vs Away Team Road Passing Defense	247.50	65	204.50	44
Home Team Home Rushing vs Away Team Road Rushing Defense	243.50	39	190.00	69

Head To Head Summary

Name	Record	ATS	OU	Score	Rush	YPR	PA	CP	PY	TY	TO +/-
North Carolina	5-5	6-4	4-6	25.40	146.50	3.83	34.90	63.32	250.10	396.60	1.40
Miami-FL	5-5	4-6	4-6	25.70	152.60	4.15	35.50	56.34	263.90	416.50	2.10

Head To Head Detail

Date	Away	Home	Score	Line	Total	OU Result	ARY	APY	ATY	ATT	HRY	HPY	HTY	HTT	Away Team Attempts	Home Team Attempts	Away Team Completions	Home Team Completions
Oct 28, 2017	MI-FL	UNC	24-19	59	356	415	2	176	252	428	4
Oct 15, 2016	UNC	MI-FL	20-13	162	299	461	0	139	224	363	1
Nov 14, 2015	MI-FL	UNC	21-59	99	326	425	3	298	189	487	0
Nov 1, 2014	UNC	MI-FL	20-47	11	247	258	2	295	199	494	1
Oct 17, 2013	MI-FL	UNC	27-23	234	322	556	4	105	395	500	2
Ot 13, 2012	UNC	MI-FL	18-14	272	214	486	1	180	235	415	2
Oct 15, 2011	MI-FL	UNC	30-24	44	267	311	1	141	288	429	2
Ot 23, 2010	UNC	MI-FL	10-33	149	140	289	3	225	217	442	1
Nov 14, 2009	MI-FL	UNC	24-33	116	319	435	4	116	213	329	0
Sep 27, 2008	UNC	MI-FL	28-24	35	264	299	0	135	174	309	2

NCAA Football Betting Odds & Trends

North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
North Carolina is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
North Carolina is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
North Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing Miami-FL
North Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami-FL

Miami-FL Hurricanes
Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Miami-FL is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami-FL's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami-FL's last 15 games
Miami-FL is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Miami-FL is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 6 games when playing North Carolina
Miami-FL is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 6 games when playing at home against North Carolina

Team Last 5 Games

North Carolina Tar Heels

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	ATS Result	offensive rush yards	offensive passing yards	offensive total yards	defensive rush yards	defensive passing yards	defensive total yards	turnovers	Location
Septem 22, 2018	PITT	38-35	W	3/48	W/O	173	313	486	228	174	402	0	H
Sep 8, 2018	E.CAR	19-41	L	-15.5/59.5	L/O	161	234	395	220	290	510	0	A
Septem 1, 2018	CAL	17-24	L	7/58	P/U	164	137	301	160	119	279	4	A
Nov 25, 2017	NCSU	21-33	L	14.5/56	W/U	83	277	360	292	204	496	1	A
Nov 18, 2017	W.CAR	65-10	W	-21/		313	298	611	151	153	304	-2	H

Miami Hurricanes

Date	Opponent	score	Result	line	ATS Result	offensive rush yards	offensive passing yards	offensive total yards	defensive rush yards	defensive passing yards	defensive total yards	turnovers	Location
Septem 22, 2018	FIU	31-17	W	-26.5/58	L/U	248	240	488	17	170	187	1	H
Sep 15, 2018	TOLEDO	49-24	W	-12/58.5	W/O	268	205	473	112	222	334	-1	A
Septem 8, 2018	SAVAST	77-0	W	-61/69	W/O	239	255	494	30	48	78	-2	H
Sep 2, 2018	LSU	17-33	L	-3/47.5	L/O	83	259	342	156	140	296	2	A
Dec 30, 2017	WISCSN	24-34	L	6.5/45.5	L/O	174	203	377	142	258	400	2	H

Next up:
North Carolina home to Virginia Tech Saturday, October 13
Miami-FL home to Florida State Saturday, October 6



Get a up to a 250% Bonus at HRWager for mentioning Handicappers Hideaway!!!