How to Bet the NFL Preseason Football
By: Doug Upstone of Vegas Pro Insiders Daily
For years I never followed NFL preseason football in the month of
August. I thought it was a waste of time to look at the betting odds and
absolutely had nothing to do with the regular season.
However, beginning in 2003 I changed my tune as a NFL football
handicapper and came up with a simple solution. Over the last decade I
made more money in the preseason then I would have guessed making NFL
picks. The beauty of exhibition games is their simplicity. I have been
very fortunate to honestly hit a monitored 59.4 percent (66-45 ATS) of
these plays and will share with you how it happens.
Pre-Pre Season
Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your teams. I
am not talking about reading hours of information about every given
team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. In the
preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution
patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand.
For example, two NFL teams have shown they could care less about winning
in the preseason, especially when favored, (which would be mostly at
home) are Dallas and Kansas City. The Cowboys are 21-36 ATS as favorite
and the Chiefs are 16-33 ATS. These franchises have worked on the
principle building the team and having it ready for the start of the
regular season.
Week 1 – Be Well Versed on Coaches
This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money
BEFORE the regular season starts. Be assured, all the sportsbooks like
Wagerweb.ag know the numbers, it is your duty as well if you expect to
profit from sports picks. In the years since John Harbaugh has been the
head coach at Baltimore, he’s placed a priority on the Ravens playing
well early and they are 18-6 against the spread.
Another important factor is first-year coaches. This year we have seven
new taskmasters and guys like Dan Quinn (Falcons), Rex Ryan (Bills),
John Fox (Bears), Todd Bowles (Jets), Jack Del Rio (Raiders), Jim
Tomsula (49ers) and Gary Kubiak (Broncos). Each will want to establish
how they will be running their programs.
After going through grueling training camps, each will want to prove to
his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off
like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit in
contests where they don’t meet one another.
One last area to consider is coaches in trouble. These fellows know
their jobs are in jeopardy and have to deliver wins, even if it has to
start in August. Among those that could be a good bet this month are
Lovie Smith (Buccaneers) and Gus Bradley (Jaguars).
Week 2 – Time to Really Engage
This is one of the two weeks you can really attack the NFL odds. The
most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation.
These are largely tied together and you can take advantage of them.
Last season, first-year head coach Bill O’Brien went out to the sizzling
desert and his Houston squad was ambushed by Arizona 32-0 as 1.5-point
favorites. Needless to say that didn’t set well with the coaches and
they rode the Texans players hard all week. Back in the right frame of
mind after a tough week of practice, Houston thumped Atlanta 32-7 as
three-point home favorites.
Likewise, just the opposite can occur. San Diego got off to a rousing
start in Week 1, dumping Dallas 27-7 last year. With optimism built up,
the Chargers bolted for Seattle and were crushed the next week 41-14 as
6.5-point underdog. Look for ripe situations.
Week 3 – Final Tune-up for Regular Season
This is the most important week of NFL preseason football, at least for
coaches to get a real sense of where the team is and if they are on
schedule. Starters will play about two-thirds of the game and a
semblance of a game plan will be implemented. Many of the same
principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations.
The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus
giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational
handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more
points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and
the games being fairly evenly matched.
Once again, coaches will create further accountability through
motivational and psychological tactics. Last August, St. Louis gave a
real dull home effort in Week 2, losing to Green Bay 21-7 in a game that
was not that close. In reading the Rams camp reports, coach Jeff Fisher
made it quite clear another shoddy effort was not acceptable and his
team was thoroughly prepared and they clobbered Cleveland 33-14 as field
goal road dogs.
How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is
coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know head
coaches are control freaks. They want to build you up to tear you down
and vice versa. As mentioned in the preseason, these maniacal masters
love to put the team thru grueling practices after a weak effort. Others
might feel the club is peeking too early and let them slack a bit after
an exceptional performance, while closely monitoring they don’t lose
their edge. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations,
teams off blowout wins or losses.
Week 4 – Pick Your Spots
The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation
for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. Be
cautious with your plays here. If you are having a winning preseason, a
game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk. If not, the
regular season starts in a week and that is what you care about most.
Final Thoughts
Take the time to review the box scores. What this is for is future
reference. This can lead to insights about any team’s depth. Every NFL
squad is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time
of year, you might find a team that has built up a 17-0 or 20-3 leads
with the first-team players in two different games and ends up losing
both contests in the second half. This could be a red flag when this
club has injuries during the regular season, when the drop off could be
precipitous. Most importantly, don’t overanalyze, follow the coaches of
the 32 teams and have fun.
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How to Bet the NFL Preseason Football - Handicappers Hideaway
